Written for owners of independent shops and small chains in the UK: convenience and grocery, newsagents and off licences, fashion, gifts, hardware, and garden and farm shops.
The short version
- Forecast cash week by week for 13 weeks.Put takings, suppliers, payroll, rates and loans in the week each really lands. Then mark your lowest week against a minimum you set.
- Put rent and VAT in their real weeks.Rent on its quarter day. VAT one month and seven days after the quarter ends: 7 February for the December quarter (As of Oct 2026).
- Agree any overdraft before the peak.Ideally before September, well ahead of Christmas. If that has passed, ask now, not in December. Or cut or defer the spring order.
A shop pays for its busiest season before it sells anything. Seasonal stock is paid for 2 to 4 months before it sells. Rent is often paid quarterly in advance, and the 25 December quarter day lands in the middle of the peak. If your VAT quarter ends in December, that quarter's VAT is due on 7 February, after the Christmas stock has been paid for. The bank balance in December can look healthy right up to the week it is not.
What goes in a shop's 13-week forecast
- Takings by tender, cash and card, with the lag before card money settles.
- Supplier payments by their terms, including deposits on seasonal stock.
- Rent on the quarter days: in England and Wales, 25 March, 24 June, 29 September and 25 December. Scottish leases often use 28 February, 28 May, 28 August and 28 November.
- Business rates, in 10 monthly instalments.
- Payroll and pension.
- VAT, due 1 month and 7 days after the quarter ends, so the December quarter is due on 7 February.
- Loan and hire payments.
- Closing cash each week, measured against a minimum headroom line you set.
Re-forecast every week from November to January. Plan stock 8 to 16 weeks ahead of each trading peak: back to school, Halloween, Black Friday, Christmas, the January sales, Easter and Mother's Day.
| Cash on 1 December | £14,000 |
| December trading, net | £12,000 |
| Quarter's rent on 25 December | -£9,000 |
| January trading, net | £1,000 |
| Spring stock deposits | -£22,000 |
| Cash at the end of January | -£4,000 |
| After the VAT due on 7 February | -£15,000 |
minus £4,000, less £11,000 of VAT for October to December = minus £15,000Two ways out: cut or defer the spring order, or agree an overdraft well before the peak, not in December.
Part of December's balance is already spoken for: the VAT you collected over your best quarter is due on 7 February.
If you need to borrow
Look at the cheaper options first: an overdraft agreed before September, well ahead of the Christmas peak (if that date has passed, ask now, not in December), stock finance, or asset finance for chillers and EPOS. A merchant cash advance takes a share of your card takings and is priced as a factor, not an interest rate. Advanced to a limited company, it is not regulated by the FCA.
| Advance received | £20,000 |
| Cost of the advance (factor 1.25) | £5,000 |
| Total repaid | £25,000 |
| Swept from card takings each month | £4,000 |
10% of £40,000 monthly card takings; £25,000 / £4,000 = 6.25 months to repaySo £5,000 is the price of about 6 months' money. Compare an overdraft or asset finance first, and never stack a second advance on top.
Stock cover has to follow the stock. If the sum insured is below the stock you hold at cost, average pays only the insured share of a loss. For example, a toy shop flooded in late November with £80,000 of stock at cost against a £40,000 sum insured is paid £10,000 on a £20,000 loss. Ask your broker for a seasonal increase before Christmas.
Asked in Greymill
1 December: £14,000
December trading: +£12,000
Rent, 25 December: minus £9,000
January trading: +£1,000
Spring deposits: minus £22,000
End of January: minus £4,000
VAT, due 7 February (As of Oct 2026): minus £11,000
After the VAT: minus £15,000
February feels far off, but a 13-week forecast from 1 December runs to the start of March. And that VAT, collected over your best quarter, is already spoken for.
Two ways out: cut or defer the spring order, or ask the bank for an overdraft now, not in December.
Want me to lay out all 13 weeks so you can see your lowest one?
Ask it about your own business
Paste this into Greymill with your own figures, and Cash & Profit works it through for your business.
I run a shop in the UK. Build me a 13-week cash flow starting [date]. Cash today is [£]. Weekly takings are about [£] by card and [£] in cash. Rent of [£] a quarter is due on [quarter days], VAT for the quarter to [month] will be about [£], and seasonal stock deposits of [£] are due on [dates]. Show me the lowest week and the options to cover it.
More for shops and physical retail in the UK
- Am I really making the margin I think, once VAT and markdowns come off?How to work margin on the price net of VAT, price a new line from a target margin, plan markdowns before they eat the season, and keep shelf prices and promotions legal.Read the lesson
- Am I charging the right VAT, and paying the right business rates?Which of a shop's lines carry VAT, how to code the till and pick a retail scheme, what to do about a past mistake, and how a shop's rates bill is worked out.Read the lesson
- Selling alcohol, tobacco and vapes without putting the licence at riskThe ages, the defence that protects you, the fireworks sale windows, keeping the licence live, what to do after a failed test purchase, and the tobacco and vape changes landing between October 2026 and March 2027.Read the lesson
- Signing or renewing a shop lease without walking into a trapSecurity of tenure, notice deadlines, break clauses, service charges and personal guarantees: the lease terms that decide whether a shop can stay and what it really pays.Read the lesson
- Sundays, under-18s on the till and customers who cross the lineThe shop-floor staff rules: Sunday opt-outs, young workers selling alcohol, harassment by customers, and what staff should do about shoplifters.Read the lesson
- A customer is back with something faulty and wants a refundWhat the law says you owe on day 25, day 70 and in month 5, why a 'no refunds' sign can get you into trouble, and what a gift voucher must say about expiry.Read the lesson
Open the interactive lesson · Every shops and physical retail lesson · What Greymill knows about the trade
Sources
The primary sources behind this lesson, checked Oct 2026.
- Non-Domestic Rating (Collection and Enforcement) (Local Lists) Regulations 1989 Sch 1 (Cash, stock finance and the 13-week model)
- deadlines (Cash, stock finance and the 13-week model)
- RAO art 60B (borrower an individual or relevant recipient) (Cash, stock finance and the 13-week model)
- deadlines (The calendar: tax, rent quarter days, rates bills and trading peaks)
- eligibility and deadlines (The calendar: tax, rent quarter days, rates bills and trading peaks)
- 1969 Act s.1; 1998 Regulations regs 3, 5 (Insurance and risk)
- Insurance Act 2015 s.3, Sch 1 (Insurance and risk)